As the February 20, 2027, presidential election draws closer, the political landscape in Nigeria is already buzzing with activity. Aspirants and their supporters are actively engaging in consultations and building alliances, all in pursuit of securing a winning path in the upcoming election.


Northern Support for Tinubu


Mid-last month, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, the National Chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), indicated that the North intends to support President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027. He asserted that this support is aligned with the North-South power rotation principle, which includes a potential return to power by the North in 2031. Similarly, Dr. Bello Matawalle, Minister of State for Defence and former Governor of Zamfara State, echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the North's commitment to Tinubu's developmental agenda through to 2031.


These statements, however, have sparked a range of reactions among Northern leaders, particularly as President Tinubu seeks to strengthen his support base in the South-East and South-South regions ahead of the election.


Electoral Challenges and Strategies


To secure a second term, President Tinubu must achieve a majority of the votes and obtain at least one-quarter of the votes cast in no less than two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. In the 2023 election, Tinubu faced significant challenges, particularly in key regions. Notably, he lost major states like Lagos, Osun, and Abuja, where his performance was particularly weak.


In the South-East, for instance, Tinubu garnered only 5.8% of the valid votes, a stark contrast to the overwhelming support for his main competitors, notably Peter Obi of the Labour Party. Despite these setbacks, Tinubu did manage to win three of the country's six geopolitical zones, claiming victories in the North-West, South-West, and North-Central.


Outreach to the South-East and South-South


To enhance his electoral prospects in 2027, sources suggest that President Tinubu is proactively engaging with leaders in the South-East and South-South regions, including state governors. One proposed strategy involves a deal where opposition governors are allowed to retain their positions in exchange for endorsing Tinubu’s re-election. If successfully finalized, this arrangement could significantly boost Tinubu's chances in these critical states, allowing for a strategic accumulation of needed votes.


Additionally, there is speculation about softening the path for opposition governors to either remain in power or defect to the APC, thereby fostering a more favorable political environment for the incumbent’s campaign.


Division Among Northern Leaders


Notably, Ganduje's comments have not gone without scrutiny. While he insists the North should not assume the presidency in 2027, some party members have expressed concerns about relying on the goodwill of South-Eastern leaders, particularly given the importance of having an APC governor in Anambra State. This division highlights the complexity of building a united front as the election looms closer.


In conclusion, while the political maneuvers surrounding the 2027 presidential election are still in their infancy, the focus on regional alliances and strategies will be critical. As candidates position themselves, the interplay of support and opposition will shape the outcomes in the coming weeks and months. The road to the presidency in Nigeria is never straightforward, and the unfolding dynamics promise an intriguing journey ahead.