Just six months after Kemi Badenoch was elected leader of the UK Conservative Party, internal discussions are already underway about the possibility of replacing her.

With local elections in England fast approaching, growing dissatisfaction among Conservative MPs and party officials has sparked concerns that Badenoch may not be the right figure to lead the Tories into the next general election, scheduled for 2029.

According to over two dozen sources who spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity, there is rising support for Robert Jenrick, the right-wing Shadow Justice Secretary, to succeed Badenoch.

The unrest follows poor polling numbers for the Conservatives and a perception that Badenoch, who assumed leadership on November 2, 2024, has failed to effectively tackle key issues. This has left the party vulnerable to growing competition from Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. Badenoch’s spokesperson declined to comment, while Jenrick’s camp referred to a previous interview where he voiced support for Badenoch, urging colleagues to give her more time.

The situation is expected to worsen after the local elections, where the Tories are predicted to lose a significant number of council seats. These elections are viewed as an early indicator of the party’s national standing ahead of the general election. In 2021, under Boris Johnson’s leadership and buoyed by the successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout, the Conservatives secured nearly half of all local seats. Since then, however, their popularity has collapsed, with political analysts forecasting an unprecedented defeat.

Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, described the expected results as a "total and unmitigated disaster." After briefly overtaking Labour in late 2024, the Conservatives have now fallen more than five points behind both Labour and Reform, with Farage’s party posing a formidable challenge on the right.

Initially, it was assumed that Badenoch would have until summer 2026 to solidify her leadership. However, several senior party figures now believe her position may come under threat much sooner. One insider described her as having entered the "political death zone," with her leadership status becoming a key topic among MPs and donors.

Badenoch inherited a fragile party when she succeeded Rishi Sunak in November 2023, following Labour’s historic landslide general election victory. While some argue that rebuilding the Conservatives would inevitably take time, frustration has been mounting. Critics say Badenoch has prioritized culture war issues such as net-zero targets and transgender rights, neglecting voter priorities like crime and immigration.

Her performances at Prime Minister's Questions have also drawn scrutiny, with Labour leader Keir Starmer often turning Badenoch’s attacks back onto the Conservatives' own record. Meanwhile, Farage’s Reform Party continues to erode Tory support, complicating Badenoch’s efforts to unify the right. Some MPs argue she is caught between two worlds too right-wing for centrists but not hardline enough to outflank Farage.

Robert Jenrick, who has cultivated strong support on the Conservative right with campaigns focused on crime and national sovereignty, is increasingly viewed as a viable alternative. A recent poll found Jenrick enjoys a significantly higher approval rating among party members compared to Badenoch. However, some centrist Conservatives worry that replacing her with Jenrick could drive the party further to the right and alienate moderate voters.

The situation remains highly fluid. Party figures are divided over whether a leadership change would stabilize the Conservatives or deepen their woes. Ultimately, the results of the local elections will be pivotal. Analysts suggest that if media narratives focus more on Farage’s rise than the Conservatives' decline, Badenoch may yet survive the mounting pressure.