As Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential election, the North stands at a critical crossroads, tasked with a weighty decision on who to support. At least five key politicians are under consideration for endorsement each carrying distinct implications for the region’s political influence and Nigeria’s delicate power-sharing balance.

The Contenders

On the radar are President Bola Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former President Goodluck Jonathan, ex-Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, and former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi.

While a few northern aspirants have also shown interest such as Atiku Abubakar, Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and Governor Bala Mohammed there is growing concern that another northern presidency immediately after Tinubu could undermine the North-South power rotation principle and provoke political instability.

The Strategy: Southern President, One-Term Only

To avoid further tension, northern political stakeholders are considering a one-term Southern presidency as a compromise. This strategy is reportedly fueling support for a candidate like Goodluck Jonathan, who, if elected, would be constitutionally limited to a single term. However, the North remains split, with no consensus yet on which Southern aspirant should receive their backing.

The four Southern contenders being seriously considered by northern power brokers include Tinubu, Jonathan, Obi, and Amaechi. Of this group, Tinubu and Jonathan are limited to one term, while Obi and Amaechi could theoretically serve two terms, though both have publicly committed to serving just one term—a pledge met with skepticism by some stakeholders.

Given historical precedent, many northern elites favor certainty over promise, fearing the possibility of a broken agreement. To guarantee that power rotates back to the North by 2031, the preference is leaning toward candidates who are constitutionally barred from seeking a second term—thereby narrowing the field to Tinubu and Jonathan.

President Bola Tinubu

Despite fierce opposition from some northern quarters, President Tinubu secured the APC ticket in 2023 and won the general election, defeating Atiku and Obi with 8.79 million votes more than five million of which came from the North.

Yet, two years into his administration, the North remains deeply divided over his performance. Some leaders praise his delivery on infrastructure and inclusion, while others accuse him of marginalizing the North in federal appointments, budgetary allocation, and development projects.

Prominent northern critics including Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, Aminu Tambuwal, and Governor Bala Mohammed claim Tinubu’s government has brought unprecedented hardship, disproportionately affecting the northern masses.

In response, the presidency recently engaged in damage control through a town hall in Kaduna, where officials like SGF George Akume and Senator Atiku Bagudu highlighted Tinubu’s accomplishments in the North and listened to grievances. The president may now seek a strategic alliance with Senator Kwankwaso to consolidate North-Western support ahead of 2027.

Goodluck Jonathan

Although questions linger over his constitutional eligibility, due to the 2018 amendment barring anyone sworn in twice as president from seeking a third term, Jonathan is enjoying renewed popularity among northern elites as a neutral, short-term alternative.

His graceful concession in 2015, after losing to Muhammadu Buhari, endeared him to many. Now, in the wake of Atiku's defection to the ADC, a growing movement within the PDP is urging him to return and run for president again.

PDP Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Ibrahim Abdullahi, recently confirmed this push, citing widespread nostalgia and admiration for Jonathan’s governance style and statesmanship. According to him, even former critics now regard Jonathan’s leadership as a more stable and democratic era.

Multiple high-level meetings both at home and abroad have reportedly taken place to convince him to run.

Peter Obi & Rotimi Amaechi

Obi, despite lacking a traditional political structure, had a strong showing in 2023, winning 11 states and the FCT, including 10 southern states and one in the North-Central region. He remains active and visible, engaging in philanthropic activities and strategic alliances under the ADC coalition.

This coalition which includes Atiku, El-Rufai, Tambuwal, and Amaechi has dismissed concerns about conflicting ambitions, vowing to back whoever emerges as the coalition’s candidate. Meanwhile, efforts by PDP to woo Obi back into the party have gained momentum, as he remains a strong potential flagbearer.

Amaechi, on the other hand, is credited for major infrastructure projects in the North during his tenure as Transportation Minister—including the Nigeria-Niger rail project and the proposed University of Transportation in Daura. These actions earned him northern goodwill and substantial delegate support in the 2023 APC primaries, where he placed second behind Tinubu.

Both Obi and Amaechi have pledged to serve only one term, but skepticism over this promise remains a key sticking point for northern stakeholders.

Atiku Abubakar

Atiku, a political veteran and serial presidential contender since 1993, has once again thrown his hat into the ring this time under the banner of the ADC, following his exit from the PDP.

In the 2023 election, Atiku secured his home region, the North-East, but lost the North-West and North-Central to Tinubu. He has also vowed to serve only one term, but whether he can consolidate the North and make electoral gains in the South remains uncertain.

Should he secure the ADC ticket, it will mark his fourth appearance as a presidential candidate having previously run in 2007 (AC), 2019 (PDP), and 2023 (PDP), and failed to secure the APC ticket in 2015.

Final Thoughts

With 460 days to the 2027 presidential election, the North faces a high-stakes decision. Will it back a Southern candidate committed to one term to preserve the rotation principle? Will internal divisions derail a united front?

Whether Tinubu can win back aggrieved northern leaders, or Jonathan is drafted as a consensus short-term leader, or a fresh face like Obi or Amaechi emerges with cross-regional appeal, the North’s final choice will profoundly shape Nigeria’s political future.

The race has begun and the clock is ticking.