Nigeria’s crude oil imports surged by 26.5% to 5,665,602 metric tons in the first half of 2025 (H1’25), up from 4,478,413 metric tons in H1’24, driven largely by the operations of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

The refinery, which began operations in May 2023 and started producing diesel and aviation fuel in January 2024, has sourced crude from the U.S., Brazil, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea, while simultaneously exporting refined products to global markets.

RoseOnAllSides analysis of Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) data showed a mixed performance:

  • Q1’25 imports: 2,400,553 MT, down 30% from 3,037,209 MT in Q1’24.

  • Q2’25 imports: 3,265,099 MT, up 126% from 1,441,204 MT in Q2’24.

Meanwhile, exports of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) fell by 7.45% to 998,500 MT in H1’25, compared to 1,078,912 MT in H1’24.

Local Supply Shortfalls

Nigeria’s Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation projected 2.06 million bpd output in the period, with 37% earmarked for local refineries. But actual production averaged between 1.6m–1.7m bpd from January to July 2025, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

Analysts attribute Dangote’s reliance on imports to limited domestic availability. Dr. Muda Yusuf of CPPE explained that much of Nigeria’s crude is tied up in forward contracts and joint ventures with IOCs, leaving refiners with supply gaps.

Shipping & Economic Impact

Maritime consultant Oluwabunmi Ogunjimi highlighted that Dangote Refinery has transformed Nigeria’s shipping economy, attracting Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) and boosting NPA revenue through pilotage, ship dues, and towage fees.

“Before, Nigeria exported mostly crude with little shipping value. Now, more vessels are delivering crude and lifting refined products, increasing tonnage, boosting IMO rankings, and creating jobs,” he noted.

Industry Perspective

  • MEMAN CEO, Clement Isong, said crude imports were not unusual, noting even major producers supplement domestic supply through imports.

  • Colman Obasi, President of Oil and Gas Service Providers Association, added that major upstream projects under execution would take years before impacting supply, but emphasized that importing crude is “not a crime” as it remains a global commodity.

The government is pursuing “Project 1 Million Barrels” to raise national output toward a target of 2.5 million bpd, in line with its strategy to strengthen local refining and build a self-reliant petroleum sector.